What is Closing Line Value?
Closing Line Value (CLV) measures whether your bet price is better than the market close.
Definition
If your placed odds are higher than closing odds on the same market, you achieved positive CLV. Over time, consistent positive CLV is a strong signal that your process is beating the market.
Why It Matters
- • CLV is one of the best process metrics for long-term betting quality.
- • It helps separate good decision-making from short-term variance.
- • Tracking CLV can reveal whether timing and bookmaker selection are improving.
Example
You bet Over 2.5 at 2.00. Market closes at 1.85. Even if this single bet loses, the ticket had positive CLV because you captured a better price than close.
Common Mistakes
- • Comparing against the wrong market or line.
- • Treating CLV as guaranteed short-term profit.
- • Ignoring limits/liquidity when evaluating achievable close prices.