What is Surebetting?
Surebetting (arbitrage betting) means covering all outcomes with odds from different bookmakers so the combined implied probability is below 100%, creating a locked-in profit.
Definition
A surebet exists when market prices disagree enough that the total implied probability across all outcomes is less than 1.00. By splitting stakes correctly, you can secure the same positive return no matter the result.
Why It Matters
- • It is one of the few betting strategies with mathematically defined positive return per position.
- • It reduces event-outcome risk because all outcomes are covered.
- • Execution speed and stake sizing are critical because odds can change quickly.
Example
If Bookmaker A offers 2.10 on Team 1 and Bookmaker B offers 2.10 on Team 2 in a two-way market, implied probability is 1/2.10 + 1/2.10 = 95.24%. The gap (4.76%) is arbitrage margin before limits/fees.
Common Mistakes
- • Ignoring stake limits and max-bet restrictions.
- • Placing one leg but missing the second after an odds move.
- • Forgetting commission, currency conversion or withdrawal fees.